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The great thing in this world is not so much where you stand, as in what direction you are moving.  Oliver Wendell Holmes (1809 - 1894)

Why is Indonesia’s economy still in pain? Why is the country’s economy still in a complete uncertainty? Megawati’s economic ministers often talk about economic growth of 4% per year, which by a layman’s view is impossible to achieve, while more than forty millions of Indonesian people are still jobless and almost the same numbers of people are still living in poverty.  It's not so much where the country stands now, but far more important is, where is the country really heading to?

The answer lies in the darkness.  But one thing for sure is that economic recovery cannot be realized without a clear and rational plan to revive the economy. Yet, up to this day there is neither clear agenda nor clear plan to revive the economic despite the fact that Megawati has been in power for more than a year. So, it’s time for Megawati’s economic team to resign, starting from the coordinating ministry of economic and finance Mr. Dorodjatun, the ministry of trade and industry, Mrs. Rini Suwandi and finance minister, Mr. Boediono.  The three key figures in the Megawati's economic team should give a chance to other people who have more capability, skills and the guts to revive the country’s economy.

For months, The Indonesian Institute (TII) has raised concern on this supreme matter. And today, a superb article by Mr. Bill Guerin from Jakarta Eye in Asiatimes online convinces us that other institutes also share our concern.

Indonesia's investment woes.  Bill Guerin. November 9, 2002.  The overall missing ingredient in the master plan for recovery is direction. The tactic of facing up to issues when they arise but without making and announcing clear-cut medium- and long-term goals has been the hallmark of the Megawati Sukarnoputri administration. Continuous forecasts on macro-economic markers such as growth rates and inflation rates are not what the country needs to get out of the mire. The need for direction and leadership is more compelling now than ever.

From the very beginning, TII has cast doubt about the capability of Mr. Boediono and Mr. Dorodjatun to revive Indonesia’s ailing economy. There is neither proven track of their successes nor their innovative idea before on how to improve the nation’s economy. Mr. Dorodjatun was neither trained as an economist nor previously involved in economic policy formulation, but rather he was trained as a political economist. Mr. Boediono’s works are not outstanding to be in the position as a Finance Minister.  A seminar participant where Mr. Boediono invited for a talk once told me that Mr. Boediono was not able to convince a small number of people. So, how can he convince Indonesian people and business community?

Please be careful to interpret this evaluation as I am not trying to make myself better than them - which is not and will never be the purpose. The point is Indonesia have weak people sitting in their huge offices trying to solve the country’s economy. Already we got confused with Boediono's statement a few months ago that he extended the contract with the IMF whereas Kwik said that the extension was impossible as it required a top management's approval. If one add the background of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Mrs. Suwandi, Indonesia got a complete incompetent people trying to recover our economy. Welcome to Indonesia!

For my fellow Indonesian young people, please start preparing yourself to lead the country in the near future. Learn from this. Don't cling yourself to the old incompetent people or to the people in the upper part of bureaucracy. That's history. The attitude was working during the New Order regime, but not today. Extend your warm cooperation to each other and never forget to think about strategic and yet simple solutions to improve your society.

Criticizing the old folks does not mean that we have no respect for them. Respect and the willingness to accept their incapability to do particular things that really matter for the country are two different things.

It’s time for Megawati’s economic team to resign.

Link to our concern

Where do we really want to go?

June, 2002.    Kemakmuran suatu bangsa tidak dapat terwujud tanpa perencanaan pembangunan yang matang dan strategis. Krisis ekonomi terjadi lima tahun lalu, namun sampai sekarang Indonesia belum memiliki blue print rencana pembangunan jangka panjang. Dua tahun setelah Soeharto berkuasa di tahun 1967, pemerintahan Orba keluar dengan repelita I. Pemerintahan sekarang ini masih 9 bulan, tetapi di tengah situasi sekarang dan dengan pengetahuan yang sudah ada, pemerintahan sekarang seharusnya dapat bekerja lebih keras. Apabila dalam kurun 6 bulan lagi belum keluar rencana eksplisit pembangunan jangka panjang Indonesia, sudah sepantasnya kinerja Cabinet sekarang dipertanyakan. Masalah yang paling serius tentang pembangunan ekonomi bukan menyangkut kebijakan hari per hari, minggu per minggu atau tahun per tahun, tetapi menyangkut arah serta tujuan yang akan dicapai. Menunggu pemerintahan pasca 2004 melakukan hal tersebut merupakan kelalaian serius.

It's the INVESTMENT, Stupid!   The need for strategic and strong investment initiatives

June 2002.  All the major issues confronting the country such as trade and fiscal deficits, low GDP growth, unemployment, poverty would be automatically addressed to a large extent if investment is accelerated. The primary focus of the new economic strategy must attack investment sector with secondary attention to all other matters.  This initiative then is combined with a strategic recovery policy that has yet to be formulated. The new government has been in power for almost nine months but so far we have seen no clear strategic plans from the government to revive our economy. We have been informed about the growth rate and inflation rates forecast. But those macro indicators are secondary after the need for direction. People need direction. Potential and “sleeping” investors need to be convinced by a clear direction where the economy will be heading. It appears that the current Cabinet works only to handle one problem after another and loses its sight for medium and long-term goals.  A temporary sacrifice is more valuable than a long painful uncertainty. Therefore, the economic plan should answer questions such as: What do we have to achieve five, ten and twenty years from now? (October 21, 2002)

People's and Future Generations' Challenges to National Leaders and Politicians

June 2002.   By contrast, Indonesia is lacks just those things. We have seen politicians and the government officials point fingers to one another on various critical issues including on IBRA (Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency). Its chairman has been replaced as often as one changes clothes. Only a fool would believe that it is purely due to management capabilities. There is just too much politics involved in economic recovery and self-centered as well as less knowledgeable politicians only make matters worse. The government itself is run by politicians. Chester Bowles once said, “Government is too big and too important to be left to the politicians”. No wonder, after five years of the crisis, we have not even had a clear guidance for economic recovery, something that Malaysia already has after one year of the crisis.

Should We Believe in the World Bank and the IMF?

February 2002.    There is no energy, no clear agenda and no urgency in our economic recovery plan. When the crisis hit Malaysia, Mahathir directly led the national economic recovery council. The goal was clear, to stabilize the economy. The steps were also clear and bold, even if it requires a rejection in the IMF's recommendation. 

And Four Years Later...

September 2002.   I used to believe that time would teach people a lesson and people will get a lesson from time.  But in our case, this is no longer true.  We experienced the former but missed the latter.  While time did teach us a lesson – that political, economic and social crisis could simultaneously happen, we failed to learn lessons from time – that a political and economic recovery cannot be realized without a clear and rational plan. And now I start to wonder whether we really understand what we said four years ago. Or whether we really mean what we said at that time. I also start to wonder who actually wanted for a reform four years ago.

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