Three months ago, before the first round of the presidential election, some polls indicated that Mr. Susilo (SBY) was far ahead of his competitors. He was leading at least by 25% ahead of Mrs. Megawati and the rest of the candidates. Some people, including myself, thought that the numbers were misleading, or possibly just a bubble. After all, Mr. Susilo’s party, the Democrat Party only managed to get about 8% of the votes in the April’s parliament elections. Besides, the widely quoted polls came from The Indonesian Survey Institute, an institution which has a favorable stance toward Mr. Susilo. It turned out, the results of the first round were: SBY won 33.58% of the popular vote, and Megawati 26.29%. It was a gap of about 7%, far less than what the polls suggested.

And so when the polls leading to the second round of the election showed that Mr. Susilo was ahead at least by 20%, many perhaps thought of it as bubble. And this is not to mention a poll conducted by The Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) in July showing that SBY would obtain 68% of the votes, far surpassing the 23% incumbent President Megawati would collect. It’s a 45% difference. This time, it was real.

Why Mr. Susilo won?

In a direct presidential election where the incumbent still has the right to run, the election is either a referendum on the incumbent or an aspiration for a charismatic challenger. Absent of the latter, essentially the election falls into the former. Which brings us to a question, did the recent presidential election fall into the former or the latter category? In my view, it’s more of the former although not to dismiss Mr. Susilo’s charm. As Meidyatama wrote in the Jakarta Post, “Susilo, unlike Megawati, was trained and educated to lead. Respect comes not from lineage, but from his career as a military officer to astute minister. In other words, people listen to what he says out of respect, not out of fear.”

There is little doubt that people do respect Mr. Susilo. People’s respect for him comes out of positive recognition of his resume. Mr. Susilo finished top of his class at the Armed Forces Academy in 1973 and graduated with a record number of merit medals. He attended an Airborne and Ranger Course at Fort Benning, Georgia, US, the US Army's Command and General Staff College, and Webster University, where he earned a Masters Degree in Management. He once headed the UN contingent in Bosnia. In 1998, he became Armed Forces' chief of sociopolitical affairs. Under Megawati’s presidency he was the coordinating ministry of politics and security until he resigned in March 11, 2004.

But there is a doubt that Mr. Susilo is a charismatic figure. He is not Soekarno. People are unlikely moved by listening to his speech. So, if we try to breakdown the Susilo’s winning votes, both can be traced to the ones which are not “for Megawati” and “for Susilo”.  Winning by a margin of 20% must be something. A favorable view of Mr. Susilo alone would not be sufficient to produce such a huge gap. And it is not inconceivable that a greater percentage of the gap was actually a result of “not for Megawati” posture of the voters. It other words, again, it was a result of a referendum on Megawati.

Surprisingly, or perhaps this is a shocking revelation to Megawati’s supporters, this has been voiced by the voters at least nine months prior to the election. A survey conducted by Charney Research of New York and AC Nielsen Indonesia and commissioned by The Asia Foundation which was reported in December of 2003 revealed a stunning and predictive result. The survey, titled Democracy in Indonesia: A Survey of the Indonesian Electorate 2003, was conducted June through until August 2003 through direct interviews and group discussions involving 1,056 eligible voters in 32 provinces, with a margin of error of around 3 percent.

Although the survey was not specially designed for the presidential election, one of the results was particularly striking. About 40 percent of the electorate would be willing to vote for women. This is almost exactly the same as the number Megawati got in the last round of the election. So, based on this number and given a free and direct election, Megawati almost certainly has no hope to win a two-race contest against a man. And if we assume that the number is consistent from the last elections and the presidential elections were direct, perhaps Megawati would have never been president. Being a woman, Mrs. Megawati’s already presented with one more difficult challenge than her opponent, SBY. Is the number due to our paternalistic culture? Or does it have anything to do with some politicians’ and religious leaders’ statements saying that woman is far less preferable than man to lead Indonesia? It’s too early to conclude although it’s not improbable that the answers may include both factors.

The survey also told an interesting finding.  About 53 percent of the voters preferred a strong leader like former authoritarian Soeharto, even if rights and freedom were reduced. Certainly, given a choice between a “smiling” general and a household wife, about 53% of the voters have already picked the general. Again, in a two-race contest against a general, Megawati’s defeat has already been pre-determined.

No less damaging to Megawati’s chance is the perception of the voters about politics. At least 65 percent of adults surveyed said that they did not like politics at all because of widespread political corruption and poor political education. And there is no other easier target to blame other than the Megawati’s government. Perhaps the following common joke can sum up the frustration of the people. It goes like this. During Suharto’s regime, briberies and corruptions were conducted secretly under the table. During Habibie’s and Wahid’s presidency, they were done a little bit openly on the table. Under Megawati’s leadership, not only they are conducted vulgarly and much more openly on the table, the table itself is also gone to the government officials’ or politicians’ possession who are involved in the briberies and corruptions.

Certainly there are many other factors that contribute to SBY’s victory—and Megawati’s defeat—such as personality and the ability to tackle major issues from economic recovery to security. However, nine months ago, voters have already revealed what was in their mind. They wanted a man, a “general” and a clean government. While they finally got the first two, they might need to be patient with the latter or perhaps will never get it. Time will tell.