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Elwin Tobing

Caution: A new kind of AIDS

A wrong prescription or a wrong direction?

A tale of two economic plans. So, who is to blame?

Tax and Expenditure Reforms, Instead of Subsidy Reduction

Why did Megawati Choose Unpopular and Bad Options?

Peace on Earth (2)

Peace on Earth (1)

What Megawati Should Do?

The New New World Order (2)

The Majority's Blunder

A Self-destructive Play or a Winning One

Fire and Ice

Promoting Dialog with a New Paradigm

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Searching for Good Politicians (1)

Belajar Memahami Perbedaan

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Information is not power

 


48 hours and after

 

 

   

 

 

 

You can't fool all people at all the time.  Author Unknown

03/18/03

Sadly, the diplomatic game in the Iraqi crisis has come to an end. President US, George W. Bush gives an ultimatum to the Iraqi leader and his sons to leave Iraq or face military conflict with the Coalition forces, led by the US. It’s only 48 hours left for Mr. Saddam and his sons to decide.

48 hours is not a long period of time, but it is not a short period of time, either. It depends on the circumstances. In this crisis, there is nothing much one can do with 48 hours.

Life is a game. Just like in games, there are winners and losers. Sometimes, there are neither both as a result of draws. But life is crueler than game and it is also more lawless than game.

Thanks to the international media and his conducts, for about 30 years Mr. Saddam has become a household name, not only in Iraq but also in the world. Five years in a row, Bill Gates has been the richest man on Earth and has donated about $200 millions to support research on AIDS. Gates never kills people. But despite all that, Gates is barely a household name in the world. Even some computer savvies perhaps do not know who is the man behind the window revolution. This is the third nature of life which makes it different from game: The winners tend to be ignored.

But this time, the winners must be honored and rebuilt. The winners must not be abandoned and allowed to disintegrate. After all, they have been suffered for a long time. Whatever the outcome of this crisis, the Iraqi people have to be the winners.

Much of debates and critiques on the Iraqi crisis have focused on “either my way or your way”. Both sides, either on the Security Council, on the streets and in the offices of leaders around the world, offer similar tones. And some decide to stand undecided. In the end, none of the parties was moving to explore a more acceptable and peaceful way.

About two months ago I predicted that a peaceful solution to this crisis would be achieved.  The only light that is needed to spark the peaceful fire is the willingness of Baghdad to a full disclosure of their WMD programs. Put it this way: Baghdad should start with a surprising move. I was betting on that, on the good will of Baghdad to agree to the UN Security Council resolution 1441. I was anxiously waiting for about seven weeks not just for the sake of predicting the outcome of the crisis correctly. But it is because I dearly want a peaceful solution.  But after seven weeks, the peaceful solution is doomed to hell. I was wrong. Baghdad is cold like the Siberian winter. There is no one to light the fire. And just like when it invaded Kuwait in 1990, this time Baghdad plays the game badly again. Now, it only has 48 hours to avoid war. If only we could turn the clock back.

But more important concern now is the future of the Iraqi people, the subject that is ironically often missing from any debates on the Iraqi crisis. Let’s hope that the outcome of the remaining 42 hours (by now) and after would be determined by the concern on about 25 millions of Iraqi people rather than concern on anything else.

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